Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 116.213425 132.976861 151.826413 174.691108 201.807678 233.101695 272.183060
2026-01-25 93.563121 114.696204 140.530789 174.789184 219.554513 276.803057 356.765106
2026-02-01 77.832019 100.299913 129.505195 170.924404 229.266800 310.244326 434.288137
2026-02-08 66.747279 89.446881 120.421212 166.796220 236.289734 339.645454 511.179792
2026-02-15 58.585802 81.086745 113.056231 163.167982 242.373216 367.549957 590.857386
2026-02-22 55.530630 79.363718 114.623759 172.530792 269.240720 432.181677 746.421206
2026-03-01 51.208500 75.133748 111.730341 174.220594 283.582899 478.325753 880.736889
2026-03-08 47.694104 71.669974 109.481317 176.420997 298.836951 528.666622 1036.712711
2026-03-15 44.254486 67.913775 106.247409 176.340113 309.731454 572.657020 1191.877001
2026-03-22 42.927361 67.407587 108.266244 185.706427 339.838487 661.034769 1475.634466
2026-03-29 41.446174 66.462187 109.369905 193.452921 368.025525 751.736414 1798.153619
2026-04-05 39.890159 65.213634 109.758195 199.812371 394.402497 844.595353 2163.148681
2026-04-12 37.748107 62.824083 107.980395 201.983376 412.966683 925.827478 2537.558718
2026-04-19 35.502156 60.047239 105.198583 201.744646 426.188275 997.707692 2919.452314
2026-04-26 32.965363 56.512791 100.608923 197.058586 428.106269 1040.552699 3226.517313
2026-05-03 30.664482 53.226027 96.180163 192.137887 428.588603 1079.793211 3542.570682
2026-05-10 28.659584 50.336366 92.260716 187.833591 429.850053 1121.778727 3893.751100
2026-05-17 28.355924 50.692509 94.929744 198.925216 473.534534 1305.729260 4960.336028
2026-05-24 27.206354 49.286686 93.803781 200.928988 493.044348 1419.414375 5797.778083
2026-05-31 26.197286 48.078793 92.975457 203.539893 514.879949 1548.718740 6822.060244
2026-06-07 25.041111 46.481736 91.156196 203.443838 528.832225 1655.220669 7820.273486
2026-06-14 24.828622 46.811004 93.595915 214.570554 579.518136 1919.973917 10053.798894
2026-06-21 24.458071 46.775365 95.209075 223.787829 626.608530 2192.404062 12711.313393